Every game you bet on sits on a line. On one side of the line, there are games that have some more predictable elements where skill and procedure are important factors. On the other side of the line, there are games where random chance is the only determinant of a given outcome, in which even if you studied the game for a lifetime you’d be no better informed than the day you started.
Football sits in between the two. There are statistics and patterns you can follow to help make informed predictions about certain outcomes. However, too many unpredictable circumstances such as injuries can occur, making it impossible to predict 100%.
Games That Have Been Solved
A game has theoretically been solved when someone has mapped out every position it can reach and proved what happens when both sides play it perfectly from start to finish.
Noughts and Crosses is a good one. Anybody who’s played this game will have experienced the phenomenon that it is possible for two competitors to draw every time, and hence impossible to win every time provided both players play correctly.
Draughts is similar as well, though proving it took a lot more effort. Jonathan Schaeffer and his team at the University of Alberta spent from 1989 to 2007 building a program that could not be beaten. The answer turned out to be identical: with no mistakes on either side, the game ends in a draw.
Chess, on the other hand, has never been solved and probably won’t ever get solved. That’s because the number of possible positions is beyond what any computer could realistically build. Despite this, chess does have complete information; both players can physically see every piece, and nothing is hidden or decided by chance.
Where Football Sits
Erling Haaland is back in training getting ready for the start of the Premier League season 💪
🔵 @ManCity pic.twitter.com/AfTGKzlgY9
— Premier League (@premierleague) August 13, 2026
Football, however, contains things you can measure alongside things nobody can, and the measurable part is significant.
We can say that home teams tend to win more than away teams, as this has been studied. When stadiums were shut in 2020, researchers found that teams’ expected home advantage in European leagues fell by roughly a third when the crowd was absent. Rest between fixtures, travel, squad availability, and shot location provide us with predictable information as well.
The thing with football is that there are unmeasurable situations as well: a shot that deflects off a defender’s shin; an offside decision goes one way rather than the other; a goalkeeper has the game of his career on a day when it matters. These are all unpredictable circumstances that cannot be fully taken into consideration.
Games With Nothing to Observe
At the far end of the line are games where the probability of every outcome is fixed before anybody starts, and nothing you do could change that.
75-ball, 80-ball, and 90-ball online bingo rooms are a good example. The likelihood of any particular number coming out next is the same on the first game as the thousandth game. Nothing changes, regardless of the amount of research into prediction performed.
Other casino games, like roulette, are similar in nature. It’s completely random, so observing how to “beat” the system is wasted time.
What This Means in Practice
Parts of football have a predictable nature, but other parts are left to chance. Therefore, though predictions can help provide a direction, there’s still an element of randomness to it, and measurements that you’re unable to fully predict.
