Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Football value bets are a similar tool to football predictions and some of the fixtures overlap. In the world of football betting, identifying value bets is akin to uncovering hidden treasures. For mathematicians, this process is not about gut feelings but about rigorous analysis and mathematical models. This article delves into the sophisticated math that underpins the search for value bets in football, providing insights into how probabilities and statistical analyses are employed to make informed betting decisions.

 

Understanding Value Bets

 

At the core of value betting is the concept of exploiting discrepancies between the true odds of an event and the odds offered by bookmakers. Mathematically, a value bet exists when the probability of an outcome, as determined by a bettor’s model, exceeds that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. The value is quantified as: Value =  (DecimalOdds × EstimatedTrueProbability)−1

 

This formula serves as the bedrock for identifying bets that offer a positive expected return over time.

 

Probabilistic Models for Football Betting

 

Football matches, with their myriad possible outcomes, present a fertile ground for the application of probabilistic models. The Poisson distribution, in particular, is widely used to model the number of goals scored by each team, given its average scoring rate. By estimating these rates based on historical performance and other relevant factors, mathematicians can predict match outcomes and identify mispriced odds.

 

Statistical Analysis in Identifying Value Bets

 

The heart of value betting lies in the ability to accurately assess the probabilities of match outcomes. This is where statistical analysis, bolstered by vast historical data sets, comes into play. Techniques such as regression analysis and Bayesian inference allow for the adjustment of predictions based on new information, offering a dynamic approach to evaluating betting opportunities.

Comparing these model-generated probabilities with those implied by bookmaker odds uncovers potential value bets.

Risk Management and Kelly Criterion

 

Even with a robust mathematical model, managing risk is paramount. The Kelly Criterion offers a formulaic approach to stake sizing, maximizing expected logarithmic utility. This criterion ensures that stakes are proportional to the perceived value, optimizing long-term growth while mitigating risk.

 

Limitations and Challenges

 

Despite the precision of mathematical models, the unpredictable nature of football introduces inherent uncertainties. External factors such as sudden player injuries or changes in weather conditions can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions, underscoring the limitations of even the most sophisticated models.

 

The intersection of mathematics and football betting opens up a realm of strategic opportunities for those equipped with the right analytical tools. While the pursuit of value bets is fraught with challenges, the disciplined application of probabilistic and statistical models offers a clear edge in the competitive world of sports betting. As the field evolves, the fusion of mathematical rigor and sports expertise will continue to redefine the strategies employed by savvy bettors.

1. Lig (Turkey) - 2023
1. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:30
Keçiörengücü
- -
Kocaelispor
1. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:30
Boluspor
- -
Erzurum BB
1. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Manisa BBSK
- -
Genclerbirligi
1. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 17:00
Eyüpspor
- -
Sakaryaspor
1. Lig
26 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Şanlıurfaspor
- -
Tuzlaspor
2. Bundesliga 2023-2024 - Regular Season
2. Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 13:30
Hamburger SV
- -
SV Elversberg
2. Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 13:30
Fortuna Dusseldorf
- -
Hansa Rostock
2. Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 13:30
SpVgg Greuther Furth
- -
FC Nurnberg
2. Lig (Turkey) - 2023
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:00
Adıyaman 1954
- -
Halide Edip Adıvar
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:00
Hekimoğlu Trabzon
- -
İçel İdmanyurdu Spor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:00
76 Iğdır Belediyespor
- -
Somaspor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:00
24 Erzincanspor
- -
Düzcespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Afjet Afyonspor
- -
Diyarbekirspor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Serik Belediyespor
- -
Altınordu
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Erokspor
- -
Van BB
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Kırklarelispor
- -
Ankaraspor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
- -
Nazilli Belediyespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Zonguldak Kömürspor
- -
Karacabey Belediyespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Fethiyespor
- -
Sarıyer
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
İnegölspor
- -
Denizlispor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Karaman Belediyespor
- -
Belediye Derincespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Etimesgut Belediyespor
- -
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Kastamonuspor 1966
- -
Menemen Belediyespor
2. Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 12:00
Isparta 32 Spor
- -
Utaş Uşakspor
Austrian Bundesliga 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Austrian Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Austria Klagenfurt
- -
FC BW Linz
Austrian Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
WSG Wattens
- -
Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 17:00
Rapid Vienna
- -
Austria Vienna
Belgian Pro League 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Belgian Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 13:30
Club Brugge KV
- -
Anderlecht
Belgian Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Gent
- -
Antwerp
Belgian Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 18:30
Union St. Gilloise
- -
Standard Liege
Belgian Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 19:15
AS Eupen
- -
Cercle Brugge
Bundesliga 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 15:30
Eintracht Frankfurt
- -
VfL Wolfsburg
Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 17:30
Borussia Dortmund
- -
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
25 Feb 2024
- 19:30
FC Augsburg
- -
SC Freiburg
Championship (Scotland) - 2023
Championship
27 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Ayr Utd
- -
Partick
Championship
27 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Dundee Utd
- -
Airdrie United
Championship
27 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Inverness CT
- -
Dunfermline
Championship
27 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Queen's Park
- -
Arbroath
Championship
27 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Raith Rovers
- -
Morton
Czech Liga (Czech-Republic) - 2023
Czech Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
České Budějovice
- -
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
Slavia Praha
- -
Pardubice
Czech Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Slovácko
- -
Sparta Praha
Danish Superliga 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Danish Superliga
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Hvidovre
- -
Viborg
Danish Superliga
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Vejle
- -
Silkeborg
Danish Superliga
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Odense
- -
Brondby
Danish Superliga
25 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Aarhus
- -
FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
26 Feb 2024
- 19:00
FC Copenhagen
- -
FC Nordsjaelland
Eredivisie 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024
- 12:15
Excelsior
- -
Vitesse
Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Almere City FC
- -
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Twente
- -
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024
- 16:45
AZ Alkmaar
- -
Ajax
Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024
- 20:00
FC Volendam
- -
Heerenveen
First Division (Ireland) - 2024
First Division
23 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Wexford
- -
Longford Town
La Liga 2023-2024
La Liga
24 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Granada CF
- -
Valencia
La Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Cadiz
- -
Celta Vigo
La Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 16:15
Real Betis
- -
Athletic Club
La Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 18:30
Las Palmas
- -
Osasuna
La Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Real Madrid
- -
Sevilla
La Liga
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Girona
- -
Rayo Vallecano
Liga I 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Liga I
25 Feb 2024
- 13:00
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- -
Universitatea Cluj
Liga I
25 Feb 2024
- 19:00
FCSB
- -
FC Botosani
Liga I
26 Feb 2024
- 19:00
Universitatea Craiova
- -
FC Voluntari
Liga I
27 Feb 2024
- 15:15
U Craiova 1948
- -
Politehnica Iasi
Liga I
27 Feb 2024
- 17:30
Dinamo Bucuresti
- -
AFC Hermannstadt
Liga I
27 Feb 2024
- 20:00
Oţelul
- -
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I
28 Feb 2024
- 17:30
Universitatea Cluj
- -
Farul Constanta
Liga I
28 Feb 2024
- 20:00
Rapid
- -
Uta Arad
Ligue 1 (Algeria) - 2023
Ligue 1
22 Feb 2024
- 17:00
Ben Aknoun
- -
MC Alger
Ligue 1 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 13:00
Lens
- -
Monaco
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
Toulouse
- -
Lille
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
Nice
- -
Clermont Foot
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
LE Havre
- -
Reims
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 17:05
Paris Saint Germain
- -
Rennes
Ligue 1
25 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Marseille
- -
Montpellier
Ligue 2 (France) - 2023
Ligue 2
26 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Caen
- -
Angers
Major League Soccer (USA) - 2024
Major League Soccer
25 Feb 2024
- 20:30
FC Cincinnati
- -
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer
25 Feb 2024
- 23:00
Nashville SC
- -
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer
26 Feb 2024
- 3:00
Los Angeles Galaxy
- -
Inter Miami
Premier League (Uganda) - 2023
Premier League
21 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Gaddafi
- -
Arua Hill
Premier League
24 Feb 2024
- 14:00
SC Villa
- -
Vipers
Premier League
27 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Arua Hill
- -
Mbarara City
Premier League
27 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Express
- -
UPDF
Premier League
27 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Kitara
- -
Wakiso Giants
Premier League
28 Feb 2024
- 14:00
BUL
- -
SC Villa
Premier League
28 Feb 2024
- 17:00
NEC
- -
KCCA
Premier League 2023-2024
Premier League
23 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Chelsea
- -
Tottenham
Premier League
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Wolves
- -
Sheffield Utd
Premier League
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
West Ham
- -
Brentford
Premyer Liqa (Azerbaidjan) - 2023
Premyer Liqa
25 Feb 2024
- 13:30
Araz
- -
Zira
Premyer Liqa
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Qarabag
- -
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
28 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Qabala
- -
Qarabag
Primeira Liga 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Primeira Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 16:30
Vizela
- -
Estoril
Primeira Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 19:00
GIL Vicente
- -
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 19:00
Benfica
- -
Portimonense
Primeira Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 21:30
Rio Ave
- -
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
26 Feb 2024
- 21:15
Boavista
- -
SC Braga
Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina) - 2024
Primera B Metropolitana
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Deportivo Merlo
- -
Argentino de Merlo
Primera B Metropolitana
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
UAI Urquiza
- -
Colegiales
Primera B Metropolitana
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Villa Dalmine
- -
Fénix
Primera B Metropolitana
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Deportivo Laferrere
- -
Liniers
Primera B Metropolitana
27 Feb 2024
- 1:05
San Martín Burzaco
- -
Dock Sud
Primera B Metropolitana
27 Feb 2024
- 1:10
Los Andes
- -
Deportivo Armenio
Primera B Metropolitana
27 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Sacachispas
- -
Sportivo Italiano
Primera C (Argentina) - 2024
Primera C
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Deportivo Paraguayo
- -
General Lamadrid
Primera C
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Victoriano Arenas
- -
Claypole
Primera C
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Leandro N. Alem
- -
Central Ballester
Primera C
27 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Berazategui
- -
Lujan
Primera C
27 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Centro Español
- -
Juventud Unida
Primera División (Chile) - 2024
Primera División
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Huachipato
- -
Union La Calera
Primera División
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Deportes Iquique
- -
Everton de Vina
Primera División
25 Feb 2024
- 22:00
O'Higgins
- -
Colo Colo
Primera División
26 Feb 2024
- 0:30
Cobresal
- -
Union Espanola
Primera Nacional (Argentina) - 2024
Primera Nacional
24 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Almirante Brown
- -
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Primera Nacional
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Club Atlético Güemes
- -
Agropecuario
Primera Nacional
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Gimnasia Jujuy
- -
Guillermo Brown
Primera Nacional
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
San Telmo
- -
Nueva Chicago
Primera Nacional
25 Feb 2024
- 22:00
Racing Cordoba
- -
Tristan Suarez
Primera Nacional
25 Feb 2024
- 23:30
Chaco For Ever
- -
Deportivo Moron
Primera Nacional
26 Feb 2024
- 0:00
Alvarado
- -
All Boys
Primera Nacional
26 Feb 2024
- 0:00
Atletico DE Rafaela
- -
Gimnasia M.
Primera Nacional
26 Feb 2024
- 0:00
Colon Santa Fe
- -
Patronato
Primera Nacional
26 Feb 2024
- 1:45
Quilmes
- -
Chacarita Juniors
Primera Nacional
26 Feb 2024
- 21:00
San Miguel
- -
San Martin Tucuman
Primera Nacional
28 Feb 2024
- 1:10
Atlanta
- -
Aldosivi
Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates) - 2023
Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- -
Ajman
Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 14:30
Al Bataeh
- -
Al Wahda FC
Pro League
25 Feb 2024
- 17:00
Baniyas SC
- -
Al Ain
Queensland Premier League (Australia) - 2024
Queensland Premier League
24 Feb 2024
- 9:00
Mitchelton
- -
Broadbeach United
Queensland Premier League
24 Feb 2024
- 9:00
Brisbane Strikers
- -
SWQ Thunder
Queensland Premier League
24 Feb 2024
- 9:30
Logan Lightning
- -
Southside Eagles
Scottish Premiership 2023-2024 - Regular Season
Scottish Premiership
25 Feb 2024
- 13:00
Motherwell
- -
Celtic
Scottish Premiership
27 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Ross County
- -
ST Mirren
Scottish Premiership
28 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Aberdeen
- -
ST Johnstone
Scottish Premiership
28 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Celtic
- -
Dundee
Scottish Premiership
28 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Heart OF Midlothian
- -
Hibernian
Scottish Premiership
28 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Kilmarnock
- -
Rangers
Scottish Premiership
28 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Livingston
- -
Motherwell
Segunda División (Spain) - 2023
Segunda División
24 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Levante
- -
FC Andorra
Segunda División
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Eldense
- -
Racing Ferrol
Segunda División
25 Feb 2024
- 16:15
Alcorcon
- -
Tenerife
Segunda División
25 Feb 2024
- 16:15
Burgos
- -
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
25 Feb 2024
- 18:30
FC Cartagena
- -
Elche
Segunda División
25 Feb 2024
- 21:00
Amorebieta
- -
Albacete
Segunda División
26 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Mirandes
- -
Huesca
Serie A 2023-2024
Serie A
25 Feb 2024
- 12:30
Juventus
- -
Frosinone
Serie A
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
Cagliari
- -
Napoli
Serie A
25 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Lecce
- -
Inter
Serie A
25 Feb 2024
- 20:45
AC Milan
- -
Atalanta
Serie A
26 Feb 2024
- 18:30
AS Roma
- -
Torino
Serie A
26 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Fiorentina
- -
Lazio
Serie A
28 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Sassuolo
- -
Napoli
Serie A
28 Feb 2024
- 20:45
Inter
- -
Atalanta
Serie B (Italy) - 2023
Serie B
25 Feb 2024
- 16:15
Modena
- -
Spezia
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 18:15
Reggiana
- -
Sudtirol
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 18:15
Ascoli
- -
Brescia
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Catanzaro
- -
Bari
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Lecco
- -
Como
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Palermo
- -
Ternana
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Parma
- -
Cosenza
Serie B
27 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Sampdoria
- -
Cremonese
Serie B
28 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Pisa
- -
Modena
Serie B
28 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Spezia
- -
Feralpisalo
Serie B
28 Feb 2024
- 20:30
Venezia
- -
Cittadella
Super League 1 2023-2024 - Regular season
Super League 1
25 Feb 2024
- 15:30
PAS Giannina
- -
OFI
Super League 1
25 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Panetolikos
- -
PAOK
Super League 1
25 Feb 2024
- 17:00
Olympiakos Piraeus
- -
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
25 Feb 2024
- 18:30
Aris Thessalonikis
- -
Volos NFC
Super League 1
25 Feb 2024
- 19:00
Panathinaikos
- -
Kifisia
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Asteras Tripolis
- -
Kifisia
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Volos NFC
- -
OFI
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Atromitos
- -
Lamia
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 16:00
Panetolikos
- -
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 18:00
AEK Athens FC
- -
PAS Giannina
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 19:00
Panserraikos
- -
PAOK
Super League 1
28 Feb 2024
- 20:00
Panathinaikos
- -
Aris Thessalonikis
Super Liga (Slovakia) - 2023
Super Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 15:00
AS Trencin
- -
Slovan Bratislava
Super Liga
25 Feb 2024
- 17:30
Podbrezová
- -
Dunajska Streda
Süper Lig 2023-2024
Süper Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 11:30
Sivasspor
- -
Pendikspor
Süper Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Fatih Karagümrük
- -
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 14:00
Trabzonspor
- -
Adana Demirspor
Süper Lig
25 Feb 2024
- 17:00
İstanbulspor
- -
Besiktas
Süper Lig
26 Feb 2024
- 18:00
Galatasaray
- -
Antalyaspor

Subscribe our newsletter

P