Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Impossibility of earning money by gambling

By gambling we not only mean the casino but also sports betting when done with a wrong approach. Gambling in our context is defined as placing bets on outcomes with odds lower than the actual chance. Translated into a human language: When the real chance of an event outcome is 50% (e.g. coin toss) but you get offered 40%. You have a mathematical disadvantage and long term there is only one possible inevitable outcome – you will get broke. Any period of gain is an insignificant matter of wacky luck.

What is wrong with the sports betting approach

For 95% of all punters you can name wrong anything they are doing. How can you say if you are one out of the 5%? The test is simple. Are you the one funding the list of bookies? Have you placed at least 50 betting slips and your and your sports betting yield is positive? If yes then with Confidence level 85% and Margin error 10% you have a good betting strategy or best free football predictions and you are not doing the so-called gambling.

The only way to be successful in sports betting is to find value. That means the fair odds is e.g. 2.00 but bookie is offering you 2.10. For beginners we have a sports betting academy, but if you are already good enough make sure to read the value bet theory and indeed the football predictions theory. Understanding of the basics of those 2 theories is crucial for sports betting not turning into gambling.

You found a value, but what is next?

Finding  the best value bet is only a beginning.  In one study, each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $ 250. The behavior of the majority was far from optimal.

No matter the advantage, 28% of the participants lost the whole $25 and the average payout was $91. While 30% participants bet the whole amount on one single toss, while two-thirds gambled unreasonably on tails at some stage during the experiment. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum defined by Kelly’s Criterion as $237.36 for 94% of participants.

Please read the 4 steps of becoming a successful punter to avoid the above scenarios.

 

 

The only way to be successful in sports betting is to find value. That means the fair odds is e.g. 2.00 but bookie is offering you 2.10. Finding a value bet is only a beginning.  In one study, each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time

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