Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

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# Football Predictions Manual

Mathematical football predictions by Rowdie are not fixed-match information nor any other scams that can easily be found by over 90% of the “betting services”.

For that the most important thing is to understand how to use our football predictions. Also remember that knowledge is power and our betting academy will arm you with brain power you might need.

How do the predictions of Rowdie work? We earn money the same way as the bookies do for themselves. We base our football picks on mathematics and science. We compare the odds of a bookmaker with the fair odds calculated by our sophisticated – self learning algorithm.

In the predictions section you will only find fixtures where the odds of a bookmaker are at least 5% higher than fair odds. The difference between those two odds is called a value.

Another important thing is predictability of the league and the market. Retrospectively we verify the profitability of our football picks and the result are 4 categories – high, good, medium and poor accuracy. Just pay attention to the colors – after you subscribe you will know what I am talking about. The logic is the following: High predictability needs less value and poor predictability needs more value. E.g. I would be happy to place a bet on a football pick with high predictability and value of 13%, but not so happy placing the same bet if the predictability was poor.

Do you not see within a fixture a green highlighted percentage of a value? Example image below shows 21.68% and 61.85% (only visible to paying customers).

This can have 2 reasons:

1. The odds of a bookie are too low
2. The odds of a bookie are high enough, but our statistical verification did not show a satisfying profitability of the league and the market (e.g. with English Premier League we struggle to find a profitable formula for Home Over 3,5 goals market, while within the same league we are doing (mostly) great predicting the 3 way result – 1X2)

## Understanding Rowdie is easy

…the following example will serve us to explain. Look at the following images of match details between Feyenord and Ajax then read the explanation below.

Our algorithm calculated that the probability of Feyenord’s home win was 54.75%, the draw 22.12% and the away win of Utrecht was 23.12%. In the spot “Highest Value” we can see 61.85%.  The combination of numbers means that in 23.12% of the cases we will succeed and win the ticket. By betting e.g. 100 tickets (£1 per ticket) we will make on average £61.85. Please notice also another oportunity in this match – a 22.12% chance of a draw and the value is 21.68%, but is it worth it?

The ideal combination of numbers is a high value and high chance of success

Let’s do a twist to the previous sentence and push it to an extreme. It makes not too much sense to bet on picks with low probability and low value. Would you bet on a win of an underdog with 0.05% chance of success and 10% value?

### Our recommendations

1. Set your goal of how much you want to win per ticket. In our case it is £2 per ticket. Bet one match per ticket only!
2. In the section Football Predictions you see the list of fixtures where we detected a value. Do not forget to click “More football predictions” at the bottom of the page.
3. Click on each fixture you consider to bet on and look for the Green Highlighted Percentage we spoke about earlier. Make sure to be critical and skeptical. We recommend spending at least 5 minutes analyzing the fixture before betting for real – all statistics you need are available below predictions table. If you do spend those 5 minutes, ROI has a rising potential to over 20%.
4. Let’s say you selected fixtures that you are about to bet on. First check if the bookmaker still has odds higher than the fair odds – they like to change them quite often. We only recommend to bet on odds between 1.5 – 5.00 since this range brings the highest profits (talking about decimal odds by the bookie)
5. As an example of the mentioned £2 per ticket goal look at the table below. £2 are stable, changes are in columns Bookies odds and Bet Amount.

The hard work is being done by Rowdie, your input in a form of critical thinking is crucial. Learn more about how to make money by betting.

Understanding the background of how to use the mathematical football predictions is the most important part