Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Value bet gone wrong / Joshua – Ruiz 2 (Video)

Every boxer has an opponent where things simply don’t work out as they usually do. In the case of Antony Joshua is from my opinion this weakness Andy Ruiz. I really admire AJ. Not for his boxing skills, but rather for his personality. He is strong, good looking, rich but still humble. A hard to be found combination.

As I saw the opening odds being 3.5 on the victory of Ruiz I was thinking that they must be dreaming. I considered this a clear and perfect value bet opportunity. How big? No idea, since I am not able to come up with any great sports prediction model for boxing.

The moment when I lost my hope

After I saw the weigh in, I simply could not believe my eyes.

While AJ has been training hard to regain his belts and dignity, for Ruiz the fight was obviously not motivating enough.  “I was partying for the last 3 months” as Ruiz confirmed after the match. He was obviously not taking the fight too seriously.

AJ came with a perfect strategy – Jab and run. He used his agility and size to move quickly and punch. AJ did not come for revenge, he left his ego behind and stayed focused to follow the predefined strategy. AJ’s jabs left no visible effects on Ruiz – besides the first round cut, on the other hand whenever Ruiz came closer, he was much more dangerous. I was excited to watch the live fight and only after I watched it again a day later I realized how boring it was. Watch it and make your own opinion.

More you can find out at the post fight conference in the following video. My score sheet is however saying. Andy Ruiz owes me some money!

Value bet Joshua - Ruiz 2 gone wrong. As I saw the opening odds being 3.5 on the victory of Ruiz I was thinking that they must be dreaming

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