Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Paderborn vs Dortmund football prediction and match analysis (May 31, 2020)

I did not expect to find much of a value in the [fixture 11886307], but surprisingly it was there. [team 2642] is hopelessly the last team of [league 85] and there is no other expectation than the clear win of [team 68]. Looking at the statistics of what other punters bet, I see a volume of 1 million £ total bet amount placed on the win of Borussia Dortmund and only some peanuts (couple thousands) on the home win or a draw. This fact pushed the bookmakers odds of an away win down to 1.30 (our predicted fair odds are 1.62).

But you should look more closely at the fixture. We see that Paderborn might be the last team (place 18) but they do not have the worst defense. They have received similar amounts of goals like [team 2726] occupying position number 7. Therefore the draw is still an option and the bookies know it. The value was pushed not to a draw, since the draw is still very likely but to the home win. There is an incredible value of 68.1%, since the bookie offers odds 8.59, but our predictions suggest fair odds only 5.11.

We are not sure if we go for that value since the success chances are below 20%, we however go for the next one. Bookmakers trust the defensive power much more than our football result predictions. They offer odds on over 2,5 goals market 1.52, while our predictions suggest fair odds 1.41 – giving  7.8% value with around 71% success chances.

You can access the details of Paderborn vs Dortmund via the prediction tab in fixture details or through the football prediction section. The predictions are being calculated with sophisticated self learning algorithms delivered by real data scientists. We are comparing our predictions with the odds of a bookmaker. Please note, the odds of your bookie might be different.

Bookmakers trust the defensive power much more than our football result predictions. They offer odds on over 2,5 goals market 1.52, while our predictions suggest fair odds 1.41

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