Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Manual for Sports Betting Odds Creator

Our betting odds calculator offers a simple, yet powerful tool to create your own odds. The odds you can then compare with the ones from a bookie and discover value.

You however need to know how to use it, because even the best tool used incorrectly can lead to a disaster.

You can NOT get it simpler

We only require 2 values to be fed into the odds creator:

  1. Average count of scored goals goals of the Home team
  2. Average count of scored goals goals of the Away team

Before you get the values for betting odds calculator, you have to do the following steps. The steps help you to take the right statistics into consideration and cut out the “noise”. Please note that the steps are just a hint.

  1. Look at all the results of the Home Team played on Home stadium and the results of Away Team played on Away stadiums (the detailed statistics of each team you see at Football scores or by using our search button).
  2. Choose what matches do you take into consideration. Is the match you are about to predict a friendly match, Championship or a national league? It matters! E.g. Predicting an outcome of a Premier League match by considering friendly match results in the statistics will most likely lead to wrong outcomes.
  3. Consider cutting out the extremes. You see an average of 1,8 scored goals per match, but suddenly a 7:0 result. You have to ask yourself.
    1. Do I consider the result as valid?
    2. What leads to an extreme like that?
    3. Was it an increased form of the predicted team, decreased form of the opponent team, or just some unexpected circumstances?
  4. Consider the time as an important factor. How far back in time do you go in counting the average count of goals? 1 year, 3 years, 5 years or only 3 months or only 2 games? Was the squad last season totally different than it is now? Time factor is a very important attribute and considering a different time span might lead to complete different results.
  5. Head to head statistics are usually a good predictor. If you have enough of those you can see if there is some “mental block” Team 1 is having when playing against Team 2.
  6. Make sure the statistics you take into consideration are those of teams with similar skills, power and performance. Imagine a scenario where an average team is playing the first 3 games against the weakest teams in the league with an incredible score 12:2. After the 3 games there is a schedule to play against the title holder. You might see the team being on the top of the table, but is the actual score really representing the power when playing against the title holder. Most likely not!


Mathematical background of the odds creator

There are many ways to predict the football game results. We have decided to go with the following: The final result of a match is only a result of the count of scored goals. It all comes down to a probability of scoring a goal in a time span. Translating this request into our needs we come to the following assignment: “What is the average count of goals scored by the team in 90 minutes”.

For the prediction we used the Poisson Distribution Formula which is analyzed in the mathematical prediction theory of sports betting.

We have limitations

The odds creator can be only used for football leagues and other sports with an average goal count less than 5 per game. As a control tool there is in the last table a value ∑. The Value has to be 1 or very close to it. If it is not 1, you have to consider where to place manually the missing probability, and that makes the odds creator invalid.

Manual for Sports Betting Odds Creator. How to feed it with the right statistics to get the best of betting odds calculator. Easy guide for the powerful tool

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