Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Manchester City vs Arsenal football prediction and match analysis (June 17, 2020)

It was in 2017 when Arsenal last time beat Manchester City. Since then we see a clear dominance of [team 9] and no other scenario is expected on June 17 – after the break that lasted more than eternity. One day of course, the winning streak of City comes to an end, but what are the chances the team will win now? [team 19] is recently on position number 9 in the [league 8] and there is not a real chance to fight for any international cup nor to worry about relegation. Arsenal is in the safe – no stress zone, but so is Manchester City. Earlier we have listed the problems of Arsenal and they are still here.

Sofar we only summarized the situation, now let’s check what our math scientists have to say with their football predictions. The brief summary is visible on the image above, the opening odds of a bookie on the following one (highlighted odds for 1X2 market).

 

Honestly, we expected different numbers. Calculated earnings of a bookmaker in this case are average 5.84%. Odds for the home win of Manchester City are basically the same as our prediction (1.37 vs 1.38). There is no value bet in the draw either. Must be in the away win of Arsenal, right? Wrong! The 1X2 market does not offer any value for betting.

Now let us check out the odds for the number of goals with a hope to spot some betting value. Let’s do it with a checklist.

  • Both teams to score predictions: Prediction 1.88, odds 1.54 – No Value
  • Over 1.5 goals both teams summed up: Prediction 1.41, odds 1.11 – No Value
  • Below 2.5 goals both teams summed up: Prediction 2.85, odds 2.98 – Small Value

The last scenario is what we might go for. Might? The predictive algorithms of bookmakers suggest more goals than ours. We calculated the value bet being 4.6% but the predictability of the Premier League is “Good” (not “High”) and therefore we might use our manual odds creator to double check.

You can access the details of Manchester City vs Arsenal via the prediction tab in fixture details or through the football prediction section. The predictions are being calculated with sophisticated self learning algorithms delivered by real data scientists. We are comparing our predictions with the odds of a bookie. Please note, the odds of your bookmaker might be slightly different. Please remember to check the predictability of the league before betting for real.

Odds for the home win of Manchester City are basically the same as our prediction. We see some value in the under 2,5 goals market since our football prediction suggests lower odds

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