Rowdie: Mathematical football prediction and betting tips

Liverpool vs Atl. Madrid 2:3 AET – Great predictions with wrong final score

Liverpool vs Atl. Madrid was a great proof of how the predictions and final results are 2 separate entities. First of all, the full time result was 1-0 and for those of you betting on Liverpool win can smile. Basically those betting live up till the extra time were most likely better off, since the match events were completely following the expectations.

Another story started in the extra time and those who believed in Liverpool continuing in Champions League to another round had some reason to cry.

Football predictions for Correct score 1-0 after 90 minutes was showing the highest chance compared to all other correct score predictions, reaching 21.82%. On the other hand, both teams to score were expected with only 25.72%. The list of bookmakers obviously expected a defensive tactics from Atlético and the ninety minutes simply followed the predicted pattern with 68,10% chance for home win.

The following 2 pictures show the most important match statistics in the first and second half. We see a stable significant dominance of Liverpool.

As for the extra time pattern did not really change. We added one extra statistic and that is the shots off goal. Liverpool was active even in extra time but managed to score only once. Atlético on the other hand only had 3 Goal attempts with 3 shots on goal ending with the 100% success rate and this meant bad news for Liverpool.

Tough luck for Liverpool this time, but I believe many punters ended up happy.

The match between Liverpool and Atl. Madrid from 11/03/2020 was a great proof of how the predictions and final results are 2 separate entities. The full time result was 1-0 and for those of you betting on Liverpool win can smile

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