The Premier League is the most followed football league in the world. Since its inception, lofty teams with title ambitions and clubs have been happy to make up the numbers. Yet in 2025, it is ponderous whether the ‘favourites tag’ is still relevant, given the unpredictability of the ongoing season.
Nottingham Forest: The New Favourites?
So, what is happening precisely at the City Ground? That early-season form has continued and become a remarkable run in the 2024/25 season. Nottingham Forest are in third place, 30 games into the Premier League season. Before a ball had been kicked, nobody would have picked the Tricky Trees to have this much success.
In the prior campaign, Forest finished 17th in the league, just one position above the relegation zone. While they were several points ahead of Luton Town, who finished 18th, they were even more adrift of Brentford, the 16th-best team. Therefore, it was unexpected for Nottingham Forest to be much better than a team competing against relegation.
Yet the team has risen above all expectations and the soccer predictions that once doubted them. They would have been favorites to lose almost every match they played. Yet, they’ve defeated Manchester City and Liverpool FC and made it to the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
Manchester City: Not the Same City
Who remembers when Manchester City was great? Pep Guardiola created a near-unbeatable team that challenged for every title available. That team did not materialize during the 2024/25 campaign. The team has been a shadow of its former self. The Citizens are the default favorites for every game they are set to play.
This season, they’ve lost nine games in the league. Let that sink in. There have only been 30 games played. The prior year, they only lost three throughout the 38-match season. The last instance where Manchester City lost nine Premier League games in a season was the 2019/20 campaign when City finished second behind Liverpool.
This time, however, they could end up much worse. They are currently sixth in the table, meaning they may not qualify for the UEFA Champions League! Of course, they could slip further down the table with eight games left to play.
The Unpredictability of Chelsea
Chelsea has never been portrayed as an exceptionally well-run football club. The Roman Abramovich era was synonymous with firing head coaches like there was no tomorrow, often with little time to craft a decent team.
However, for the most part, Chelsea was still considered a consistent force toward the top end of the Premier League standings. After all, they were able to recruit players like Didier Drogba, Douglas Costa, and Eden Hazard, who, for the most part, were able to elevate the team, even if the head coach was a moving part. However, in the 2023/24 season, they slumped to a sixth-placed position after winning just 18 games in the 38-match competition. Not elite by any standards, but teams would often fancy their chances against this inconsistent Chelsea.
Is this year under Enzo Maresca any better? Well, they are at least fourth in the table with eight games left to play. Well, they’re sitting fourth in the table with eight games to go. But if soccer predictions have taught us anything, that could all change real quick. A slender four points separates Chelsea in fourth place from Aston Villa in seventh, which means that just a few results could put the Blues in a worse position than last year!
The Best Teams Often Win at Home (and Away too)
While a league season is contested across multiple games, home and away (19 each), the best teams can make their home ground a fortress. This season, Liverpool has won 12 of their 15 Premier League games at Anfield. To a lesser extent, Arsenal have made the Emirates Stadium a decent turf for themselves, only losing one game there. If in doubt, English football often favours the home team – so there can be a de facto favourite for any good team playing at home.
There are some interesting anomalies in this data set, too. Despite being very impressive at home, Liverpool actually boasts a better record on the road! They’ve not lost a single match when playing as the away team. The combination of the two records explains precisely why they are at the top of the Premier League.
Crystal Palace are a fascinating team within this metric. If only away results counted, they would be fifth in the Premier League table! That’s quite the improvement on their actual placement of 12th in the standings! Is there an issue with Selhurst Park? The Eagles certainly prefer playing away from their home ground.
